President Donald Trump’s six-day swing through Riyadh, Doha, and Abu Dhabi delivered eye-catching headlines: a $142 billion arms-and-technology package with Saudi Arabia, a public handshake with Syria’s Islamist leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, and fresh talk of a face-saving nuclear understanding with Iran. But the most striking story was the one he declined to write: he never set foot in Israel. Jerusalem had expected the traditional stopover that has punctuated every U.S. presidential tour of the region for half a century. Instead, the Trump jet refueled at Al-Udeid, not Ben-Gurion. The omission was deliberate, White House officials say, and it signals a new phase in Washington’s management-by-leverage approach to the Gaza war.

From ‘Ironclad’ Ally to Negotiating Chip

Two weeks before Air Force One took off, Trump’s envoys warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the president wanted Gaza’s guns to fall silent “within weeks.” A senior official quoted the president telling aides he was “frustrated” by images of malnourished babies and believed the war was the last barrier to a wider Gulf-centric architecture that could unite Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and even Qatar in a soft-containment ring around Iran. Netanyahu, preparing

“Operation Gideon’s Chariots” to re-occupy the Strip, refused. In response, Vice President JD Vance canceled a long-planned solidarity visit to Tel Aviv. The Times of Israel cited U.S. sources saying the administration feared a photo-op with Israeli commanders would be read as an endorsement of the offensive. Within 48 hours, the president scrubbed Israel from his itinerary.

The Numbers Driving Washington’s Pivot

The Gaza operation is proving brutally expensive in diplomatic currency. U.N. agencies warn that 14,000 Gazan infants suffer severe acute malnutrition; aid convoys permitted by Israel averaged just nine  https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cnvmry71q5yo   trucks a day last week, barely two percent of the pre-war norm. Trump’s advisers fear famine footage will dominate every screen in Riyadh, Doha, and Cairo, making it impossible for Gulf partners to normalize ties with Jerusalem. Behind closed doors, Treasury officials float a stark calculus: the United States signed $56 billion in new Gulf infrastructure and energy memoranda this spring; Israeli defense imports from America, by contrast, totaled $3.8 billion in 2024 foreign-military-financing grants. The White House conclusion is mercantile: Israel is becoming a net diplomatic liability  https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-senate-panel-amends-bill-to-state-that-criticism-of-israeli-govt-is-not-antisemitism/   in a region where Saudi and Qatari sovereign funds promise ten times the commercial upside.

The Mar-a-Lago Formula

Trump’s broader economic playbook deepens the chill. Under the so-called Mar-a-Lago Accords—an as-yet notional successor to 1985’s Plaza Accord—the administration seeks a coordinated dollar weakening in return for continued U.S. security guarantees. Gulf petrostates sit at the center of that design because they hold roughly $1.1 trillion in U.S. Treasuries. Israeli cooperation is not essential to the scheme; in fact, prolonged fighting in Gaza threatens to spook Middle-Eastern reserve managers and drive them toward euro-denominated assets, blunting Washington’s leverage. Excluding Israel from the president’s public schedule https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/trump-netanyahu-differences-over-iran-gaza-widen-as-us-  president-to-skip-israel-on-his-middle-east-trip/3564682  allowed Trump to woo Gulf investors without explaining why American-made smart bombs were still smashing Rafah.

Allied Backlash, Measured Responses

London, Paris, and Ottawa sensed the opening. On the eve of Trump’s tour, they issued a joint ultimatum: lift the Gaza blockade, admit large-scale humanitarian aid, and accept a time-bound cease-fire, or face “targeted sanctions” and possible recognition of a Palestinian state at next month’s U.N. summit  https://www.netnewsledger.com/2025/05/20/uk-france-canada-warn-israel-over-gaza-offensive-and-aid-blockade/ . Their statement was the toughest Western language since 7 October. Within 24 hours, the Israeli cabinet authorized 100 aid trucks, up from single digits, a jump Israeli finance minister Bezalel Smotrich admitted it was calibrated to keep “the international umbrella of protection” intact.

Yet the concession failed to mollify Trump. In Doha, he told reporters the additional trucks were

“a trickle, not a flood,” adding that American patience was “not unlimited.” White House envoy Steve Witkoff privately presented Netanyahu with a revised hostage-and-cease-fire deal promising a 45-day truce in exchange for ten captives. The text included language obliging Israel to consult the United States before resuming combat operations—an effort to prevent another March-style cease-fire collapse. Netanyahu’s reply, sources say, was “positive but hedged,” prompting Trump to keep Israel off the flight plan.

Domestic Optics and 2026 Calculations

There is also an American electoral logic. Polls conducted this month by the Pew Research Center show 63% of U.S. voters under 35 disapprove of Israel’s conduct of the war; among independents, the figure is 57%. Trump’s campaign team aims to regain suburban moderates without alienating his evangelical base. The message crafted for Gulf audiences—“wrap it up, bring the hostages home, feed the babies”—squares with that objective. By skipping Israel, Trump avoided awkward questions about why humanitarian conditions remain catastrophic despite a year of U.S. arms shipments worth $6.1 billion.

Strategic Realignment: Saudi First, Israel Second

Trump’s Riyadh package includes Patriot and THAAD batteries, joint drone defense development, and a pledge to fast-track Saudi entry into the I2U2 economic forum alongside India and the UAE. Notably, none of the communiqués mention Israel as a partner. Saudi officials briefed that the kingdom could consider limited oil-denominated-in-yuan sales—a subtle nod to Beijing—if Gaza casualties continue to mount. In Abu Dhabi, UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed emphasized “regional de-escalation.” The subtext was clear: Gulf capitals will deepen ties with Washington only if the Gaza war winds down.

Israel’s Dwindling Leverage

Netanyahu’s long-time strategy of linking American support to the shared fight against Iran suddenly looks threadbare. Trump is openly courting Tehran through a provisional nuclear-fuel swap discussed in Muscat last month. At the same time, he praises Saudi Crown Prince

Mohammed bin Salman as a “true partner.” Jerusalem’s warning that rapprochement with Riyadh risks Israeli security premium no longer lands: Gulf monarchies see Gaza as Netanyahu’s problem, not theirs, and Washington appears to agree.

Inside Israel, retired generals worry about strategic isolation. Foreign Policy magazine reports that senior defense officials fear a slowdown in replenishing JDAM kits and tank ammunition if the White House prioritizes Gulf clients. The Knesset opposition has seized on Trump’s snub, arguing that Netanyahu’s refusal to compromise on a hostage deal now endangers Israel’s most important alliance.

What Happens Next?

Trump gave Netanyahu a de facto countdown: accept Witkoff’s 45-day truce and open Gaza’s gates to at least 300 aid trucks daily, or face a drip-feed of diplomatic cold-shoulders culminating in an empty chair when Gulf Cooperation Council leaders convene in Riyadh in July. Meanwhile, JD Vance’s canceled trip remains officially “postponed,” a scheduling sword of Damocles signaling future consequences.

Hamas, for its part, is weighing whether the new cease-fire language offers real guarantees. If the group senses Israel cannot rely on unconditional U.S. backing, it could demand even stronger assurances before freeing hostages, potentially prolonging negotiations. That, paradoxically, might deepen Trump’s frustration and push him toward sharper public criticism of Netanyahu. White House aides insist support for Israel remains “ironclad,” but the conditionality is unmistakable: no aid without restraint, no visit without progress.

Conclusion

Trump’s Gulf detour marks the first time in decades that a U.S. president has wielded absence, not presence, as leverage against an Israeli government. The message is transactional: continued U.S. diplomatic cover and arms supplies depend on measurable de-escalation in Gaza because

Washington’s broader regional agenda now runs through Riyadh, Doha, and Abu Dhabi. Whether

Netanyahu’s fate remains uncertain, but the optics are already inescapable. In the new Middle East map being drawn from Mar-a-Lago to the Gulf, Israel’s once-automatic spotlight has dimmed, replaced by a conditional glow that flickers in rhythm with the president’s impatience—and with the grim daily tally from Gaza’s malnourished children.