Since the former U.S President Donald Trump commenced a high-profile tour of Gulf countries the conspicuous exclusion of Israel, Jordan, and Egypt has made these three pivotal U.S allies in the Middle East and has ignited a firestorm of geopolitical analysis. Is this omission a strategic oversight, or perhaps an unintentional diplomatic gap? Or was it also a calculated signal, particularly to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, trying to reflect a deeper shift in the Middle East Strategy?
With the supporters of the “Oversight” theory arguing that Trump’s visit was focused on economic partnership, energy diplomacy, and regional investment, and not necessarily a broader strategic realignment. With this tour, they keep arguing and saying it has more to do with rekindling ties with Gulf powerhouses like Saudi Arabia and the UAE partners, which are central to Trump’s Abraham Accord legacy and business interests, than making a pointed diplomatic statement. The supporting point that makes this argument stands out are the; to begin with the Narrow Agenda Focus, which Trump’s itinerary was reportedly driven by trade and private investment and not foreign policy or any security framework. Also with a Private Citizen Status, Trump is not only the U.S President, but his visits carry a symbolic weight and lack the institutional obligations that a sitting or diplomat would have to maintain balance regional representation. Israel and Egypt says that the busy political calendars that President Trump arranged may have conflicts and regional tension, which has made visits to these two countries diplomatically sensitive or logistically impractical at this time. With this view, no slight was intended, and this exclusion may have simply been a consequence of practical priorities, and not an indicator of strategic repositioning or disapproval of Netanyahu’s policies.
On the flip side, the evaluation points to the symbolic weight of who wasn’t included with Israel, Jordan, and Egypt, and all central players in Trump’s previous Middle East strategy. With this absence, this might well signal a recalibration of allegiance, and potentially, a shot across the bow to Netanyahu, whose controversial domestic policies and hardline stance on Gaza have drawn global scrutiny. Some of the things that make this evaluated point valid will be the Diplomatic Realignment, which was engaged on with Gulf States, as Trump may be endorsing a “Gulf-First” strategy that may sideline some traditional U.S allies perceived as politically unstable or diplomatically. Next, a Subtle Dismissal of Netanyahu, as the Israeli Prime Minister is facing strong domestic and international pressure over Gaza and its Judicial reforms. Trump’s omission could also be interpreted as him distancing himself from a polarizing figure and more. Trump’s visit may be a nod to emerging power centers in the region of Saudis and Emiratis, and by emphasizing partnerships with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, this could be a suggestion pivot towards authoritarian pragmatism over democratic alliances. So, in this interpretation, the omission is far from accidental, but it’s a strategic message called ‘The old regional order is no longer guaranteed a seat at the table.’
As we look into the bigger picture of this whole article, a fracturing balance of power is in process regardless of Trump’s intent and the optics of this matter. The Middle East is in flux with Iran-Saudi tensions cooling through a China-brokered deal. As of March 2023, a landmark agreement was made between Iran and Saudi Arabia by China, implying a defrost in relations between these two regional rivals. As this development was not only to reduce immediate tension but was also to underscore China’s growing diplomatic influence in the region, traditionally dominated by U.S interests. As a mediator role played by the Chinese, this reflects its broader ambition to reshape its global power structures and diminish the U.S hegemony in the Middle East.
Also, Israel, under global scrutiny for its actions in Gaza, has drawn increasing international condemnation, which has been notable by the International Criminal Court issuing an arrest warrant for Israeli leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, citing alleged war crimes. To add in addition, countries like Spain have also proposed sanctions and have called for the recognition of a Palestinian state, indicating a shift in global attitude toward Israel’s policies.
Lastly, the Shifting U.S influence and Regional Realignment as the primary power brokers in the Middle East are being challenged. China has implemented a strategic investment and a diplomatic engagement involving the Belt and Road Initiative, which is to lead to the expansion of its footprint in the region. Meanwhile, a Reginald Powers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are also exploring diversified alliances, including potential members in BRICS, and signaling a move toward a more multipolar regional order.
The implication for traditional alliance exclusion of the key U.S allies, Israel, Jordan, and Egypt, is that recent diplomatic engagement, such as Former President Trump’s Gulf tour, may also reflect a strategic recalibration. This shift could indicate a move away from a long-lasting alliance toward new partnerships that align more closely with emerging regional dynamics and interests.
To sum everything up, the Middle East is at a crossroads, with traditional power structures being reevaluated, aimed at new diplomatic initiatives and shifting alliances. This evolving role of global powers like China, coupled with regional realignments, is suggested to form a future where influence is more distributed, and longstanding alliances are no longer taken for granted.
