Back from the Brink, But for How Long?

As India and Pakistan trade blows over Kashmir, the world hesitates, revealing fraying diplomacy, rising nationalism, and the risks of a regional crisis in a shifting global order.

The latest military standoff between India and Pakistan felt like déjà vu, only this time with more drones, sharper rhetoric, and far less patience from the rest of the world. For four days, the two nuclear-armed neighbours lobbed missiles and launched aerial raids deep into each other’s territory. 

It was an eerie echo of past conflicts, only louder, faster, Risk of Nuclear War and more digitally broadcast. But perhaps what stood out most wasn’t what happened in the skies. It was what didn’t happen on the ground. The once-reliable intervention of global powers came sluggishly, if at all.

There was no Clinton-like pressure. No Kerry-led shuttle diplomacy. Just an errant tweet from Trump and a shrug from everyone else. South Asia, it seemed, had become another crisis the world had learned to live with.

The Long Shadow of Partition

Like all the worst family feuds, this one started at the border. In 1947, the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir, with its Muslim-majority population, acceded to India under murky and hotly contested terms. Pakistan cried foul and has never stopped. The result? Four wars, countless skirmishes, and an unresolved question hanging in the air like gunpowder smoke. Who really owns Kashmir?

Over time, the weapons have changed. Bayonets and bullets have been replaced by loitering munitions and hypersonic drones. But the bitterness remains. The trigger for the latest round was a gruesome terror attack in Pahalgam, which killed 26 civilians. After accusations and allegations that have become the norm and a precursors for escalation, what followed was a deadly ballet of airstrikes, drone incursions, and nationalist chest-thumping on both sides. Cooler heads did not prevail. They barely showed up.

Diplomatic Fatigue and Global Distraction

There was a time, not so long ago, when the world would drop everything when India and Pakistan squared off. In 1999, Bill Clinton all but dragged the two countries off the battlefield during the Kargil War. In 2001 and again in 2008, the Americans played peacemakers with notable urgency. Fast forward to 2025. Trump issued a vague statement and hoped they’d “figure it out.” It wasn’t just underwhelming. It was symptomatic.

Washington is overstretched. Brussels is distracted. Beijing has its own calculations. Kashmir used to be a crisis. Now it’s just background noise. This global fatigue isn’t just risky. It’s dangerous. The diplomatic architecture that once helped prevent catastrophe is rusting from disuse. The world’s growing indifference to South Asia’s powder keg could one day prove fatal.

Trump’s Mediation Offer and the Cracks It Revealed

In the middle of this chaos, Donald Trump did what Donald Trump does. He threw out a bombshell. “I’ll solve Kashmir,” he said on Truth Social, with his Crtisim Over Kashmir trademark mix of hubris and historical amnesia. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif immediately rolled out the welcome mat. India, on the other hand, slammed the door.

“We don’t need anyone to mediate,” an Indian official declared flatly.

“There’s only one matter left: the return of Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir.”

That exchange was more than a diplomatic spat. It was a revelation. Pakistan is desperate to internationalise the Kashmir issue. It wants to get it back on the global radar. India wants the exact opposite. Accepting third-party mediation, from New Delhi’s view, would be a slippery slope to questioning its sovereignty. But the whole episode also revealed something deeper. America no longer commands the respect or trust it once did. Trump’s offhanded offer wasn’t just rebuffed. It was dismissed as unserious. The U.S., once the de facto referee in South Asia, now feels more like a noisy neighbour shouting from the porch.

Pakistan’s Pivot to China

Adding another layer of complexity is Pakistan’s slow drift toward Beijing. Once a loyal Cold War ally of the U.S., Islamabad is now firmly in China’s embrace. Economically, militarily, and strategically. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor has redefined Pakistan’s development path and foreign policy calculus.

This realignment isn’t just about cash and concrete. With China and India locked in their own cold conflict, punctuated by Himalayan standoffs and diplomatic frost, the India-Pakistan rivalry now sits uncomfortably within the broader U.S.-China competition. And as Washington’s grip on Islamabad loosens, Beijing’s hand tightens. Add the recent talks between the U.S. and China after months of tariff wars and the whole region’s proxy status takes on another level of complexity. If relations thaw between the two superpowers to such a degree that there’s no longer a need for intermediaries, what leverage will Pakistan or India have when they need someone to pull them back from the brink?

Modi’s Assertive India and the Vanishing Off-Ramp

Narendra Modi doesn’t do off-ramps. Since taking office, he’s redefined Indian foreign policy with a blend of ancient civilisational pride and 21st-century realpolitik. Revoking Kashmir’s special status in 2019 was not just a constitutional move. It was a statement. India, under Modi, would no longer entertain ambiguity about Kashmir’s place in the Union.

The response to the Pahalgam attack fits this ethos. India didn’t just strike back. It suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, a bedrock agreement that had survived three wars. These are not the moves of a government looking to cool things down. They’re the actions of a state staking its claim and daring anyone to question it.

Reputational High Ground vs Strategic Risk

India wants to be seen as a responsible global power. A leader in the Quad. A magnet for trade. A counterweight to China. But it also wants to crush any challenge to its sovereignty with overwhelming force. This is the tightrope Modi’s India walks. Aspiring to global statesmanship while flirting with regional brinkmanship.

Meanwhile, Pakistan is boxed in. The economy is tanking. The military call Pakistan nuclear weapons the shots. Its international reputation remains chained to its militant past. But playing the underdog has its uses. It keeps Kashmir in the headlines and lets Islamabad point fingers at Delhi’s excesses. And in China, it has an ally that still needs it to thwart India’s global ambitions.

Paths Forward: Dialogue, De-escalation and Durable Peace

So where do we go from here? Back-channel diplomacy is a good start. Quiet conversations between national security advisers may not make headlines. But they make a difference.

Third-party mediation? Maybe. But not the bull-in-a-china-shop version that Trump offered. Any mediation must be subtle, credible, and mutually acceptable. Gulf states, the World Bank, even Japan could play a role.

Most crucially, India must reckon with the reality that lasting peace requires winning hearts, not just battles. The people of Kashmir, who’ve suffered most in this endless tug-of-war, need agency, dignity, and a stake in peace. No amount of surveillance or securitisation can substitute for genuine reconciliation.

Pakistan, for its part, must cut its ties to extremism once and for all. It cannot hope to rebuild its economy or regain global trust while flirting with militancy.

If the region keeps lurching from crisis to crisis, the world may one day stop watching altogether. And when the next war comes, it won’t be about border posts or propaganda. It could be about survival.

It’s time South Asia stopped tempting fate. The world may be too distracted to save it next time.